In the final week of the American presidential campaign, polls indicate a significant ‘gender gap,’ with men favoring Donald Trump and women rallying behind Kamala Harris. In critical states like North Carolina, 61% of potential Harris voters are women, while 60% of Trump supporters are men. This election marks a stark division, with themes like abortion central to the campaign. Trump’s strategy focuses on appealing to men, particularly younger ones, raising concerns about long-term viability given that women typically vote at higher rates.
Men are backing Donald Trump while women are leaning towards Kamala Harris. As the U.S. presidential campaign heads into its final week, surveys reveal that the ‘gender gap’, the disparity between male and female voting patterns, is expected to be significantly pronounced in this election. Recent polls from various key states indicate that the Democratic candidate enjoys substantial support from women, while the billionaire Republican primarily appeals to men.
For instance, a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University in North Carolina shows that 61% of those likely to vote for Kamala Harris are women. Conversely, 60% of Trump supporters are men. Similar trends are observed in Michigan and Wisconsin. ‘This is a battle of the sexes and it’s not a game’, comments Tim Malloy from the polling institute. ‘We’ll see with the more precise results, but we are anticipating the most gendered election in history, with the largest gap between male and female votes’, notes Olivier Richomme, a professor of U.S. political history at Lumière Lyon 2 University.
Party-Specific Themes
This voting disparity between men and women is not a new phenomenon in the United States. Dating back to the 1980s, it has continued to widen. ‘There are many factors, but particularly, the issues championed by the Democratic Party seem to resonate more with female voters’, explains Richomme. Historically, Kamala Harris’s party has advocated for abortion rights, education issues, and improved healthcare access. ‘Generally, social aids, which are a hallmark of the Democratic Party, appear to attract female voters more than male voters’, he adds.
Nevertheless, the 2024 presidential campaign marks a turning point in this voting polarization, with the ‘gender gap’ widening due to various factors. The candidates’ profiles contribute to this divide. While Kamala Harris could become the first woman to enter the White House, Donald Trump has been known for his sexist remarks and was found liable in a civil case for sexually assaulting a journalist in 1996.
Abortion at the Forefront of the Campaign
This polarization is also fueled by the abortion debate, which is a significant campaign issue. Many states have drastically limited this right following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. This upheaval occurred 49 years after abortion was legalized nationwide, largely due to Trump’s appointment of three ultra-conservative judges to the Supreme Court.
While the Republican candidate boasts about returning choice to the states, Kamala Harris is campaigning on a platform to protect this right. On October 25, she was in Texas, where abortion regulations are now among the strictest in the nation, advocating for every woman’s right to choose whether to continue a pregnancy. The Democratic candidate aims for federal legislation that would restore the protections established in 1973.
Donald Trump’s Electoral Strategy
The electorate’s polarization also results from a strategic decision by Trump’s campaign. Noticing that his messages struggle to reach women, the Republican candidate has focused predominantly on male voters. ‘Trump is not looking to broaden his electoral base. He has chosen to concentrate on his core demographic, emphasizing men, particularly young men’, states Richomme.
Instead of engaging with traditional media outlets, Trump has dedicated campaign time to various podcasts—non-conventional platforms whose audiences are often more receptive to his rhetoric. For instance, on October 25, he participated in a three-hour interview with Joe Rogan, whose podcast has millions of listeners, predominantly a young and male audience.
Betting on a female electorate is, in principle, a better calculation
Betting on a female electorate is, in principle, a better calculation
Olivier Richomme, Professor of U.S. Political History
Will this strategy succeed? For Olivier Richomme, it’s a risky bet. ‘Traditionally, men vote less frequently than women. Betting on a female electorate is, in principle, a better calculation’, he points out. Moreover, he downplays Trump’s advancements among certain voter groups, notably among African Americans. Recent polls from CBS News and the New York Times/Siena Polls indicated that while Harris might still secure the majority of African American male votes, the percentages are significantly lower than what her party has achieved in past elections.
‘This will likely be marginal—a matter of a few percentage points. Since the 1970s, the African American electorate has voted for the Democratic Party by over 85%